Is Android Plateauing?

Is plateauing a word?  Blogger doesn't seem to red pen it, so maybe I didn't just make it up.

Anyways, as a stats guy (I last reported on the platform distribution), I like to keep a tab on the numbers, and recently comScore has come out with some numbers on the platforms in the US.  (I really want to find out the Canadian side of this some day - last reported was in March)




Top Smartphone OEMs
3 Month Avg. Ending Aug. 2013 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending May 2013
Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Age 13+
Source: comScore MobiLens
 Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
May-13Aug-13Point Change
Total Mobile Subscribers100.0%100.0%N/A
Apple39.2%40.7%1.5
Samsung23.0%24.3%1.3
HTC8.7%7.4%-1.3
Motorola7.8%6.9%-0.9
LG6.7%6.7%0.0

Top Smartphone Platforms
3 Month Avg. Ending Aug. 2013 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending May 2013
Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Age 13+
Source: comScore MobiLens
 Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
May-13Aug-13Point Change
Total Smartphone Subscribers100.0%100.0%N/A
Android52.4%51.6%-0.8
Apple39.2%40.7%1.5
BlackBerry4.8%4.0%-0.8
Microsoft3.0%3.2%0.2
Symbian0.4%0.3%-0.1
As you can see Apple still is the top dog for making phones, but for a platform Android is #1.  Sad to see that Blackberry didn't make the top 5 for makers, but surprisingly is still #3 for platforms.

The main take away I see here is that Android went down.  Sure, only by 0.8% (as a fraction of it's original number it was a reduction of 1%), so it's minuscule, but any time ANYBODY sees a negative number, instantly negative thoughts creep in.  Look at HTC.  What's frightening is it's the same loss as the BB has seen.

Now, the study goes up to August 13th, so prior to the iPhone5S launch (so they might even grow) and BB scare (so that might even shrink).  But, still... it's steadying itself at just over the halfway mark.  Will a full year's comparison (this is just 3 months) show approximately the same, or will there be an increase.

We've seen plenty of 'big dogs' eventually steady out and then decline.  I don't want to muddy any waters here, but could Android be doing the same?  The brand new super features released in new phones has somewhat slowed (then again, what else can they really reveal, it's an awesome OS), and the spec race seems to be also going tit-for-tat.  What do you think?  Has Android reached the pinnacle and from here on out we may see an evening out of the playing field for the partners?  Google has often said that they feel that competition is always for the best.


Source:  http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/10/comScore_Reports_August_2013_US_Smartphone_Subscriber_Market_Share



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